Treasury Yields Fluctuate

Published March 21, 2025

Treasury yields edged lower midweek as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and their outlook for economic growth. Yields trended higher toward the end of the week as the latest employment data showed an uptick in unemployment claims filed.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its second monetary policy decision of 2025, following the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At the meeting, policy makers agreed to hold the benchmark rate steady at a range of between 4.25% to 4.50%. Members signaled that rate reductions will likely occur later in the year but acknowledged growing uncertainty around the economic outlook.

“Revisions to FOMC members projections had a somewhat ‘stagflationary’ feel with forecasts for growth and inflation moving in opposite directions,” said global co-head and co-chief investment officer of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Whitney Watson. “For the time being, the Fed is in wait and see mode, as it monitors whether the recent growth slowdown develops into something more serious.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of March 17 at 4.32% and traded as high as 4.25% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.62% and traded as high as 4.56% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment increased by 2,000 to 223,000 for the week ending March 15. This was less than the 224,000 claims analysts expected. Continuing claims increased by 33,000 to 1.89 million.

“The data continue to tell a story of relatively few private-sector layoffs but limited employment opportunities for those who are unemployed,” said lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten.

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of March 17 at 4.26% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.59%.