Treasury Yields Vary
Published June 6, 2025
U.S. Treasury yields fell early in the week as investors reacted to the latest payroll data for the private job sector. Yields increased towards the end of the week after jobless claims rose higher than expected, intensifying concerns about the labor market.
On Wednesday, ADP reported that private sector job creation stalled in May, indicating a weakening labor market. The payroll processing company detailed that private sector hiring rose by 37,000 in May, below the 60,000 added in April and far below Wall Street’s expectations of 110,000. This marked the lowest monthly job total counted by ADP in more than two years.
“The Fed will take notice of slower job growth, but this will not be enough to convince them to cut interest rates near term,” said chief economist for Comerica Bank, Bill Adams. “Labor force growth will also be slower in 2025 due to less immigration, so less job growth is needed to hold the unemployment rate steady.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of June 2 at 4.41% and traded as low as 4.32% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.94% and traded as low as 4.83% on Thursday.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment increased by 8,000 to 247,000 for the week ending May 31. This was more than the 235,000 claims that analysts anticipated and marks the highest level experienced since October. Continuing claims decreased by 3,000 to 1.90 million. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report for May which indicated the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in May. The report also noted an increase of 139,000 jobs in May, above economists’ forecasts of 130,000.
"We will not dismiss the rise in claims over the last two weeks, which may be signaling weakening labor market conditions in response to the Trump administration's tariff policies and uncertainty," said lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten. "However, seasonal quirks might have contributed to the rise in claims."
The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 6/2 at 4.51%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.97%.
