Treasury Yields Rise

Published May 16, 2025

U.S. Treasury Yields rose throughout the week as investors digested the latest inflation data and the developing tariff agreements reached with China and the U.K. Yields declined at the end of the week as the latest consumer sentiment and employment data sent mixed signals on the economy.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of dozens of everyday consumer goods, increased 0.2% in April, in line with economists’ forecast. As of April, the year-over-year CPI rose to 2.3%, the lowest level recorded since February 2021 and less than economists’ projections of 2.4%.

“Good news on inflation, and we need it given inflation shocks from tariffs are on their way,” said corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, Robert Frick. “Non-tariffed goods are still in the pipeline, and perhaps some importers have absorbed their tariff costs for now.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of May 12 at 4.39% and traded as high as 4.55% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.84% and traded as high as 5.00% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial unemployment claims reached 229,000 for the week ending May 10, matching the previous week but slightly above economists’ expectations 226,000. Continuing claims increased by 9,000 to 1.88 million.

“A gradual climb higher still seems likely in the coming months, as an uncertainty-driven pullback in hiring makes it harder for recently laid-off workers to find new roles,” said senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Oliver Allen.

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of May 12 at 4.48% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 5.00%.